Research of the dynamics and development of the spatial distribution forecast of heat supply of the Crimean peninsula

by

E.A. Rybalko, N.V. Baranova, V.Y. Borisova

Federal State Budget Scientific Institution «All-Russian National Research Institute of Viticulture and Winemaking «Magarach»,

Russia, 298600, Republic of the Crimea, Yalta, 31 Kirov St.

E-mail: agroeco-magarach@yandex.ru

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2019-3-96-101

UDC 634.8:528.94:551.4.03:581.524.44

 Abstract:

The analysis of the spatial variation of the level of heat supply on the territory of the Crimean Peninsula is conducted and the digital large-scale cartographic model of the distribution of the sum of active air temperatures above 10 °C, adapted for the purpose of selecting the optimal sites for laying vineyards is built. The dynamics of heat supply of the Crimean Peninsula from 1985 to 2018 is analyzed and on its basis by extrapolation the forecast of change of this indicator till 2050 is made. Digital large-scale maps of the heat supply distribution forecast for the Crimean territory for 2035 and 2050 are developed.

The analysis of the time dynamics of the heat supply of Crimea revealed a trend towards rapid increase. The sum of active temperatures above 10 °C  during the analyzed period from 1985 to 2018, increased by 567 °C. Based on the results of the analysis of the thermal condition dynamics, it is concluded that in Crimea the prerequisites for the expansion of territories suitable for late and mid-late grape varieties that require high heat supply of the growing area are formed. However, it is necessary to take an even more careful approach to the selection of sites for the laying of technical grape varieties designed to produce high-quality wine products, as the identified trends in climate change may be unfavorable for the production of some types of wine products.

Keywords: agroecology, climate maps, sum of active temperatures, Crimean Peninsula, grapes, forecast.

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