Trends analysis of changes in the climatic conditions of the Republic of Crimea for advanced mapping of locations suitable for vineyards establishment

by

 E.A. Rybalko,  N.V. Baranova

 All-Russian National Research Institute of Viticulture and Winemaking Magarach of  RAS, Russian Federation, Yalta, Kirov St., 31

E-mail: agroeco-magarach@yandex.ru

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2018-4-116-121

UDC 634.8.047:631.543:581.524.44(470.75)     

Abstract:

     Climate is the main factor influencing growth, development and fruit-bearing capacity of the vine plant. High quality of grapes for each grape variety can be obtained only under optimal climatic conditions.

     In our work we analyzed changes in the climatic factors on the territory of the Republic of Crimea for advanced planning of plot allocation for the establishment of vineyards. The paper analyzes change trends in the basic agro-climatic parameters influencing vine plant development. Graphs were built and trends were derived that allow predicting possible future changes in the climatic conditions using extrapolation method.

     The data produced by the study revealed a strong upward trend in the average annual air temperature. It was established that annual precipitation on the territory of the Crimean peninsula also tends to increase, but at a rather slow pace, in contrast to the average annual temperature. Temporal development analysis of the heat supply of Crimea revealed a tendency for its rapid increase. The sum of active temperatures above 10 ° C for the analyzed period of 33 years has increased by 567 ° C. The frost risk level on the territory of the Crimean peninsula did not demonstrate clearly pronounced upward or downward trends. It should be noted that during the period from 2000 to 2017 the fluctuation amplitude of this indicator increased significantly; incidents of extremely low temperatures were observed more often, as compared to the period of 1985-2000.

    Thus, over the past 33 years the climate on the territory of the Crimean peninsula has demonstrated an overall upward trend. At the same time, prerequisites have been observed for the expansion of the territories suitable for late and mid-late grape varieties that require sufficient heat supply of the cultivation area. However, one cannot speak of widening the boundaries of uncovered grape culture, since winter minimums of air temperatures do not show tendencies to increase.

Keywords: grape variety, climatic factors, trends, heat supply, sum of active temperatures, absolute minimum of air temperatures, frost hazard, precipitation.

Full text in PDF (RUS)

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