Dangerous meteorological events of rainfalls in Sevastopol region

by

V.P. Evstigneev 1, 2, V.A. Naumova1, M.P. Evstigneev2

1 Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, RF, Sevastopol, Lenin St., 28

2 Sevastopol State University, RF, Sevastopol, Universitetskaya St., 33

E-mail: vald_e@rambler.ru

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2019-3-89-95

UDC 551.582/.583+551.577.1  

 Abstract:

    The article focuses on frequency of dangerous meteorological events in Sevastopol region with special emphasis on heavy precipitation events. The analysis of the frequency of occurrence of dangerous meteorological events, intra-annual distribution and occurrence of their types was performed using the data of two stations (“Sevastopol” and “Chersoneses lighthouse”) on the territory of Sevastopol during the period 1976-2018. The study of statistical properties of extreme precipitation distribution by block maxima approach was carried out and frequency distribution functions of annual maximum rainfall amounts were obtained. For this purpose, a sample of annual maximum rainfall amount at two stations for 1936-2018 was formed.

   In addition, a study of heavy rainfall profiles was carried out. The “rain profile” refers to the relative change in precipitation intensity during rainfall. In order to get profiles, 115 individual rain events with the amount of precipitation above 10 mm were identified from pluviograph records at “Sevastopol” station (1994-2018). A set of profiles was typified by precipitation intensity distribution using the k-medoid clustering algorithm, which is a robust analogue of more common k-means clustering. As a result, three types of rain intensity distribution (i.e. “profiles”) were obtained.

   The final part of the article describes a case of heavy rainfall on the 7th of June 2019 resulted in registration of the record-breaking daily precipitation amount at one of the two stations of the region. In particular, it describes the synoptic situation of the rainfall as well as the damage caused to the population and economic sectors on the territory of the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol during the evolution of the atmospheric process.

Keywords: dangerous meteorological events, precipitation, extreme value distribution, rainfall profile, Sevastopol region, climate change.

Full text in PDF(RUS)

LIST OF REFERENCES:

  1. Report on climate risks in the Russian Federation. SPb., 2017. P. 106.
  2. Evstigneev V. P., Naumova V. A., Evstigneev M. P. Adaptation of the system for processing and transmitting data of hydrometeorological observations in the Crimean Republic to the structure of Roshydromet. Vol. 180. P. 110-120.
  3. Coles S. An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values. Springer-Verlag, 2001. 211 p.
  4. Tibshirani R., Walther G., Hastie T. Estimating the number of clusters in a data set via the gap statistic // J. R. Statist. B. 2001. V. 63. P. 411–423.
  5. Core Team R. A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, 2012. ISBN 3-900051-07-0, URL: http://www.r-project.org/ (application date: 13.08.2019).
  6. Papalexiou S.M., Koutsoyiannis D. Battle of extreme value distributions: A global survey on extreme daily rainfall // Water Resources Research. 2013. V. 49. P. 187–201.

Loading