ANNUAL REGIME AND SEASONAL CHANGE OF CYCLONE PARAMETERS IN THE BLACK SEA-MEDITERRANEAN REGION IN 1951–2017

V.N. Maslova1, E.N. Voskresenskaya1, A.V. Yurovsky1, 2, M.Yu. Bardin3, 4

1 Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, RF, Sevastopol, Lenin St., 28

E-mail: veronika_maslova@mail.ru

2 Marine Hydrophysical Institute of RAS, RF, Sevastopol, Kapitanskaya St., 2

3 Institute of Geography Russian Academy of Sciences, RF, Moscow, Staromonetny Per., 29

4 Institute of Global Climate and Ecology n. a. Ac. Yu.A. Israel, RF, Moscow, Glebovskaya St., 20B

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2019-4-91-98

UDC 551.582.1, 551.582.2

Abstract:

     On the basis of daily four-term data on the 1000 hPa geopotential height from the NCEP / NCAR reanalysis and method by M.Yu. Bardin, we obtained more accurate estimates of the parameters of cyclonic activity (repeatability, depth, area and intensity) for the Black Sea, west and east of the Mediterranean Sea for the period 1951-2017. A comparative analysis with corresponding characteristics for the period 1948-2006 showed the following results.

     Maximum annual values ​​of the parameters of cyclones are typical for the western part of the Mediterranean Sea, while the Black Sea region leads in the spread (dispersion) of annual values ​​relative to the average one, with the exception of the area of ​​cyclones. According to the seasonal cyclone repeatability regime, the eastern part of the Mediterranean region is characterized by a winter maximum and a summer minimum, while the Black Sea region is characterized by a spring maximum. The sign of the main trends of cyclone repeatability in the Black Sea-Mediterranean region in the period 1951 – 2017 in comparison with 1948-2006 did not change. At the same time, some of the linear trends reached a statistically significant level in the summer-autumn period in the Black Sea region and in the west of the Mediterranean Sea. The extension of the analyzed period for 11 years (2006-2017) was characterized by the appearance of significant positive trends in the area, depth and intensity of cyclones in all regions in the autumn season, as well as by the significant negative trends in the eastern Mediterranean in the summer. At the same time, cyclone area trends over a longer period in winter in the Black Sea region and in spring in the east of the Mediterranean Sea ceased to be significant.

Keywords: number of days with cyclones, frequency, statistical characteristics, climatic regime, climatic trends, significance estimates.

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[IEEE] V. N. Maslova, E. N. Voskresenskaya, A. V. Yurovsky, and M. Y. Bardin, “ANNUAL REGIME AND SEASONAL CHANGE OF CYCLONE PARAMETERS IN THE BLACK SEA-MEDITERRANEAN REGION IN 1951–2017,” Monitoring systems of environment, vol. 4, pp. 91–98, Dec. 2019.

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