V.N. Maslova1, E.N. Voskresenskaya1, A.V. Yurovsky1, 2, M.Yu. Bardin3, 4
1 Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, RF, Sevastopol, Lenin St., 28
2 Marine Hydrophysical Institute of RAS, RF, Sevastopol, Kapitanskaya St., 2
3 Institute of Geography Russian Academy of Sciences, RF, Moscow, Staromonetny Per., 29
4 Institute of Global Climate and Ecology n. a. Ac. Yu.A. Israel, RF, Moscow, Glebovskaya St., 20B
UDC 551.582.1, 551.582.2
On the basis of daily four-term data on the 1000 hPa geopotential height from the NCEP / NCAR reanalysis and method by M.Yu. Bardin, we obtained more accurate estimates of the parameters of cyclonic activity (repeatability, depth, area and intensity) for the Black Sea, west and east of the Mediterranean Sea for the period 1951-2017. A comparative analysis with corresponding characteristics for the period 1948-2006 showed the following results.
Maximum annual values of the parameters of cyclones are typical for the western part of the Mediterranean Sea, while the Black Sea region leads in the spread (dispersion) of annual values relative to the average one, with the exception of the area of cyclones. According to the seasonal cyclone repeatability regime, the eastern part of the Mediterranean region is characterized by a winter maximum and a summer minimum, while the Black Sea region is characterized by a spring maximum. The sign of the main trends of cyclone repeatability in the Black Sea-Mediterranean region in the period 1951 – 2017 in comparison with 1948-2006 did not change. At the same time, some of the linear trends reached a statistically significant level in the summer-autumn period in the Black Sea region and in the west of the Mediterranean Sea. The extension of the analyzed period for 11 years (2006-2017) was characterized by the appearance of significant positive trends in the area, depth and intensity of cyclones in all regions in the autumn season, as well as by the significant negative trends in the eastern Mediterranean in the summer. At the same time, cyclone area trends over a longer period in winter in the Black Sea region and in spring in the east of the Mediterranean Sea ceased to be significant.
Keywords: number of days with cyclones, frequency, statistical characteristics, climatic regime, climatic trends, significance estimates.
To quote, follow the DOI link and use the Actions-Cite option or copy:
[IEEE] V. N. Maslova, E. N. Voskresenskaya, A. V. Yurovsky, and M. Y. Bardin, “ANNUAL REGIME AND SEASONAL CHANGE OF CYCLONE PARAMETERS IN THE BLACK SEA-MEDITERRANEAN REGION IN 1951–2017,” Monitoring systems of environment, vol. 4, pp. 91–98, Dec. 2019.
LIST OF REFERENCES
- IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change / Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.
- Meteorological dictionary / ed.- comp. S. p. Khromov, L. I. Mamontova, edited by V. I. Kuzmenko. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1974. P 568.
- Mariotti A., Struglia M.V., Zeng N., Lau K.-M. The hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean region and implications for the water budget of the Mediterranean Sea // J. Clim. 2002. Vol. 15. P. 1674-1690.
- Rodo X., Baert E., Comin F.A. Variations in seasonal rainfall in Southern Europe during the present century: relationship with the North Atlantic Osillation and the El Nino–Southern Oscillation // Climate Dynamics. 1997. Vol. 13. P. 275–284.
- 5. Bardin M.Yu. Anticyclonic quasi-stationary circulation and its effect on air temperature anomalies and extremes over Western Russia // Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2007. 32. № 2. P. 75–84.
- Kovalenko O.Y., Voskresenskaya E.N. Interannual variability of anticyclone activity and temperature extremes in the Black sea region // 3rd International Conference on Environment and Sustainable Development of Territories – Ecological Challenges of the 21st Century. T. 107: IOP Conference Series-Earth and Environmental Science ‒ Kazan, RUSSIA, 2017.
- Zolina O., Gulev S.K. Synoptic Variability of Ocean–Atmosphere Turbulent Fluxes Associated with Atmospheric Cyclones // J. Clim. 2003. Vol. 16. № 16. P. 2717–2734.
- Tilinina N., Gulev S.K., Rudeva I., Koltermann P. Comparing Cyclone Life Cycle Characteristics and Their Interannual Variability in Different Reanalyses // J. Clim. 2013. Vol. 26. № 17. P. 6419–6438.
- Akperov M.G., Bardin M.Y., Volodin E.M., Golitsyn G.S., Mokhov I.I. Probability distributions for cyclones and anticyclones from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the INM RAS climate model // Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 2007. Vol. 43. № 6. P. 705–712.
- Hoskins B.J., Hodges K.I. New Perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks // J. Atmos. Sci. 2002. Vol. 59. № 6. P. 1041–1061.
- Trigo I.F., Bigg G.R., Davies T.D. Climatology of cyclogenesis mechanisms in the Mediterranean // Mon. Weather Rev. 2002. Vol. 130. P. 549–569.
- Bardin M.Y., Polonsky A.B. North Atlantic oscillation and synoptic variability in the European-Atlantic region in winter // Izvestiya atmospheric and oceanic physics. 2005. Vol. 41. №2. P. 127–136.
- Maslova V., Voskresenskaya E., Bardin M. Variability of the cyclone activity in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region // Journal of Environmental Protection and Ecology. 2010. Vol. 11. № 4. P. 1366–1372.
- Neu U. et al. IMILAST: A Community Effort to Intercompare Extratropical Cyclone Detection and Tracking Algorithms // Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2013. Vol. 94. № 4. P. 529–547.