WIND-WAVE AND LITHODYMANIC CONDITIONS OFF THE WEST COAST OF CRIMEA. PART 2: PROJECTIONS ON THE 21-ST CENTURY

А.B. Polonsky1,2,3,  M.I. Zheleznyak4

 1Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, RF, Sevastopol, Lenin St., 28

 Email: apolonsky5@mail.ru

2Sevastopol State University, RF, Sevastopol, Universitetskaya St., 33

3Sevastopol Branch of Moscow State University, RF, Sevastopol, Sevastopol Hero St., 7

4Institute of Environmental Radioactivity at Fukushima University, Japan, 1 Kanayagawa, Fukushima City, Fukushima Prefecture 960-1296

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2019-4-99-107

Abstract:

     The article presents the results of the regional wind-wave and lithodynamic simulations which continue the simulations described in the first part of the work (Environmental systems’ control, No.3 (37), 2019, pp. 79-88). Projections of the wind-wave and lithodynamic characteristics of shallow waters of the Black Sea near the Western Crimea up to the end of the 21st century are calculated using original COD of Institute of the Problems of Math Machines and System of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, wind forecast of Princeton model CFDL CM2 and one of the worst climate projections (A2) which does not imply regulation of green gas emissions in the 21st century. The wave field in the entire Black Sea basin up to the end of the 21st century is calculated with space resolution of 1, 5–3/. Then, higher resolution is applied for calculations in the Kalamita bay region. After that, the wave-induced currents and lithodynamic characteristics are calculated.  The comparison of the calculated characteristics for the first and second half of the 21st century and for the recent conditions showed that in general the wind-wave and lithodynamic parameters will be the similar up to the end of the 21 century. Some weakening of the Northeastern winds will be partly compensated by an increase of frequency of the Southwestern winds which force the most intense storms in the Calamity bay. A slight weakening of wind speed of the northeastern rumbas will be partially offset by an increase of winds frequency of the southwestern rumbas, causing the most intense storms in the Kalamitsky Gulf.

Keywords: modeling, climate projections, Black Sea wind-wave climate.

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