А.B. Polonsky1,2,3, M.I. Zheleznyak4
1Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, RF, Sevastopol, Lenin St., 28
2Sevastopol State University, RF, Sevastopol, Universitetskaya St., 33
3Sevastopol Branch of Moscow State University, RF, Sevastopol, Sevastopol Hero St., 7
4Institute of Environmental Radioactivity at Fukushima University, Japan, 1 Kanayagawa, Fukushima City, Fukushima Prefecture 960-1296
The article presents the results of the regional wind-wave and lithodynamic simulations which continue the simulations described in the first part of the work (Environmental systems’ control, No.3 (37), 2019, pp. 79-88). Projections of the wind-wave and lithodynamic characteristics of shallow waters of the Black Sea near the Western Crimea up to the end of the 21st century are calculated using original COD of Institute of the Problems of Math Machines and System of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, wind forecast of Princeton model CFDL CM2 and one of the worst climate projections (A2) which does not imply regulation of green gas emissions in the 21st century. The wave field in the entire Black Sea basin up to the end of the 21st century is calculated with space resolution of 1, 5–3/. Then, higher resolution is applied for calculations in the Kalamita bay region. After that, the wave-induced currents and lithodynamic characteristics are calculated. The comparison of the calculated characteristics for the first and second half of the 21st century and for the recent conditions showed that in general the wind-wave and lithodynamic parameters will be the similar up to the end of the 21 century. Some weakening of the Northeastern winds will be partly compensated by an increase of frequency of the Southwestern winds which force the most intense storms in the Calamity bay. A slight weakening of wind speed of the northeastern rumbas will be partially offset by an increase of winds frequency of the southwestern rumbas, causing the most intense storms in the Kalamitsky Gulf.
Keywords: modeling, climate projections, Black Sea wind-wave climate.
To quote, follow the DOI link and use the Actions-Cite option or copy:
[IEEE] А.B. Polonsky and M.I. Zheleznyak, “WIND-WAVE AND LITHODYMANIC CONDITIONS OFF THE WEST COAST OF CRIMEA. PART 2: PROJECTIONS ON THE 21st CENTURY,” Monitoring systems of environment, vol. 4, pp. 99–107, Dec. 2019.
LIST OF REFERENCES
- IPCC: Climate Change 2001. The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change / J.T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs [et al.]. Cambridge, New York. Cambridge University Press, 2001. 881 p.
- IPCC: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I To the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change / S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Ed. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press. 2007. 996 p.
- IPCC: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/ R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.). IPCC. Geneva, Switzerland, 2014. 151 p.
- Zhang K., Douglas B.C., Leatherman S.P. Global Warming and Coastal Erosion // Climatic Change. Kluwer Academic Publishers. 2004. P. 41–58.
- Zheleznyak M. I., Polonsky A. B. Wind-wave and lithodynamic conditions off the Western coast of Crimea. Part 1: Modern climate // Monitoring systems of environment. 2019. No. 3 (37). C. 79-88. DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2019-3-79-88
- www.theseusproject.eu (date of issue: 04.12.2019).
- Mitigating Flood and Erosion Risk using Sediment Management for a Tourist City: Varna, Bulgaria / E. Trifonova, N. Valchev, S. Keremedchiev [ et al.] // In book: Coastal Risk Management in a Changing Climate (Edited by B. Zanuttigh and R. Nicholls). Elsevier B.V. 2014. P. 358–383.
- Wittenberg A.T., Rosati A., Lau N-Ch., Ploshay J.J. GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models. Part III: Tropical pacific climate and ENSO // J. of Climate. 2006. Vol. 19. P. 698–722.
- Polonsky A. B., Knyazkov A. S. Spatio-temporal structure of the regional temperature field for the region of Ukraine and the Black sea in global climate models / / Reports of the national Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. 2012. No. 1. Pp. 123 -130.
- Correspondence of meridional and zonal wind components between the GFDL model , JRA re-analysis and field observations / A.B. Polonsky, E.N. Voskresenskaya, A.V. Garmashov [et al. ] / / Monitoring systems of environment. 2010. Vol. 14. Pp. 164-167.
- Report on the research work “Study of the direction and intensity of erosion processes in the coastal zone of the Black and Azov seas in connection with climate change” (“ERBER”, head of work -A. B. Polonsky). Sevastopol, 2013. P. 222.
- Polonsky A. The Ocean’s Role in Climate Change // Cambridge Scholars Publishing. Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, UK. 2019. 294 р.
- Low-frequency variability of storms in the northern Black Sea and associated processes in the ocean-atmosphere system / A. Polonsky, V. Evstigneev, V. Naumova [et al.] // Regional Environmental Change, 2014.Vol. 14. Is. 5.P. 1861–1871. DOI:10. 1007/s10113-013-0546–z
- Wind-wave conditions of the coastal zone of the Azov-black sea region / V. p. Evstigneev, V. A. Naumova, E. N. Voskresenskaya [et al. ]. Sevastopol: INTS, 2017. 320 с. DOI:10.33075/978-5-6040795-0-8
- Climatic Change in the Storm Occurrence and Intensity Trends / N. Valchev, E. Trifonova, N. Andreeva [et al.] // Proceedings of the International Multidisciplinary Scientific Geo-Conference SGEM Albena. Bulgaria. 2009. Vol. 2. P. 305–312.
- Goryachkin Yu. N., Dolotov V. V. Changes in the coastline of accumulative coasts of the Western Crimea / / Ecological safety of coastal and shelf zones and integrated use of shelf resources. 2011. Vol. 25. Vol. 1. P. 8-18.
308 total views, 1 views today