Quasi-periodic vari-ability of total and intense cyclonic activity in the Вlack Sea region in 1951–2017

by

V.N. Maslova, E.N. Voskresenskaya, A.V. Yurovsky

 Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, RF, Sevastopol, Lenin St., 28

E-mail: veronika_maslova@mail.ru

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2020-2-19-28

UDC 551.582.1, 551.582.2, 551.5

Abstract:

   On the basis of daily four-term NCEP / NCAR reanalysis data and methodology by M.Yu. Bardin, the parameters of the total and intense cyclonic activity in the Black Sea region for 1951 – 2017 were obtained and their quasiperiodic variability was analyzed.

   Negative linear trends significant at the level of 90 – 99% and explaining about 5 – 13% of the variance were obtained for the annual frequency of the total cyclonic activity, as well as for the frequencies of intense (0.75 percentile) and extreme (0.95 percentile) cyclones. For the autumn area, depth and intensity of cyclones, positive linear trends significant at the 99% level and explaining 11 – 12% of the variance were found.

   It was shown that during the period 1951 – 2017 the intervals of change of sign of the anomalies of the general and intense (0.75 and 0.95 percentiles) cyclonic activity with a period of about 30 years were observed: positive anomalies in the 60s of the 20th century, negative anomalies in the 80s – 90s and again positive at the beginning of the 21st century.

   Taking linear trends into account, low-frequency variability (≥14 years) explains more than a half of the variance of annual cyclone frequency in the Black Sea region due to winter and spring and about a fifth of the variance of depth, intensity and area of cyclones. For the annual frequency of intense and extreme cyclones, this contribution is more than 60% and 38%, respectively.

   Significant spectral peaks were identified for all cyclone parameters in the Black Sea region at periods of 2.5–4 and 6–8 years, mainly due to the contribution of the cold half-year.

Keywords: interannual, decadal-multidecadal variability, cyclones, deep cyclones.

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