Climate projections for central Caucasus (CORDEX experiment results)

I.A. Korneva1,2, О.О. Rybak2,3,4

1Institute of Geography of RAS, RF, Moscow, Staromonetniy Lane, 29

E-mail: comissa@mail.ru

2Branch of Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, RF, Sochi, Kurortny Av., 99/18

3Sochi Research Center of RAS, RF, Sochi, Theatralnaya St., 8a

4Water problems Institute of RAS, RF, Moscow, Gubkina St., 3

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2020-4-5-12

UDC 551.583

Abstract:

   World-wide degradation of mountain glaciation as a consequence of climate warming is confirmed by numerous observations. Predictions of glaciation behavior is critically important for planning economic activities and minimizing risks of hydrological hazards due to increased glacial runoff on the first stage of warming.

   In order to evaluate future changes of the Caucasus glaciation using methods of mathematical modeling, one needs meteorological predictions of high quality and high spatial resolution. Results of prognostic numerical experiments CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) seem to be the most promising in this respect. CORDEX is the part of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP). The aim of CORDEX is to unite numerical predictions performed by numerous mesoscale models, obtained using dynamical downscaling of the results of global climate modeling within the frames of CMIP5 and CMIP6 for 14 regions covering the whole globe.

   The region of the Caucasus is enclosed into the model domains of several CORDEX regions. For the initial analysis, the region MENA (Middle East Central Asia) was chosen. We analyzed monthly averages of surface air temperature and monthly precipitation amounts, computed using a regional model SMHI RCA4 for the historical period (1971-2000), for the middle (2021-2050) and for the end (2071-2100) of the 21st century according to RCP8.5 scenario. Model SMHI RCA4 adequately reproduces spatial structure of temperature and precipitation in the region in the period 1971-2000, except that the mean-annual model temperature in the mountains is too high and precipitation is too low. According to the model predictions, by the middle of the 21st century air surface temperature will increase at the Main Caucasus Chain by 1.5-2.0°С, and by the end of the century – by 5-7°С. Winter precipitation is expected to slightly increase (up to 50-70 mm/month).

Keywords: regional climate model, downscaling, climate projections, CORDEX.

To quote: Korneva I.A., Rybak О.О. “Climate Projections for Central Caucasus (CORDEX Experiment Results).” Monitoring Systems of Environment no. 4 (December 24, 2020): 5–12. doi:10.33075/2220-5861-2020-4-5-12.

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