Analysys of the influence of Atlantic-European large-scale atmospheric modes on win-ter anomalies of the surface air temperature in the Black sea-Caspian region

A.B. Polonsky, P.A. Sukhonos

Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, Russian Federation, Sevastopol, Lenin St., 28


DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2020-4-13-19

UDC 551.456


   This article clarifies the manifestations of the main large-scale atmospheric processes, typical for the Atlantic–European sector, in winter air temperature anomalies in the Black Sea–Caspian region. The results are based on decomposition of NCEP 20CR V2c atmospheric reanalysis data for the period 1851–2014 by empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) and composite analysis.

   The linear trend of air temperature in the studied region in December–January for the specified period is positive, but insignificant. The contribution of the linear trend dispersion to the total air temperature dispersion in the region as a whole does not exceed 3%.

   Analysis of the main modes of air temperature variability after removing the linear trend showed the following. The first three leading EOFs describe ~96% of the total air temperature variability in December–January. Moreover, the first EOF mode accounts for more than 69% of the total variance. This EOF is a manifestation of the «East Atlantic – Western Russia» mode, which strongly correlates with the «North Sea – North Caspian» mode. The positive phase of this mode describes the development of anticyclonic blocking and is accompanied by a statistically significant cooling of the surface layer over most of the Black Sea region. The absolute value of the surface layer temperature anomalies over this region exceeds 1.5–2.0 °С. The second EOF for air temperature fluctuations in December–January is characterized by a spatial structure with opposite signs to the north and south of 45 °N. The contribution of this EOF to the total air temperature variability is about a quarter of the contribution of the first EOF. This EOF is due to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The temperature anomalies induced by it over most of the region do not exceed 1.0 °C. The third EOF for air temperature fluctuations in December–January corresponds to the Scandinavian pattern. However, its contribution to the overall variability of air temperature is small.

Keywords: surface air temperature, atmospheric indices, Black Sea–Caspian region.

To quote: Polonsky, A.B., and P.A. Sukhonos. “Analysys of the Influence of Atlantic-European Large-Scale Atmospheric Modes on Win-Ter Anomalies of the Surface Air Temperature in the Black Sea-Caspian Region.” Monitoring Systems of Environment no. 4 (December 24, 2020): 13–19. doi:10.33075/2220-5861-2020-4-13-19.

Full text in PDF(RUS)


  1. Barnston A.G., Livezey R.E. Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns // Monthly Weather Review. 1987. Vol. 115. № 6. P. 1083–1126. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1083:CSAPOL>2.0.CO;2
  2. Lim Y.K. The East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) teleconnection in the North Atlantic: climate impact and relation to Rossby wave propagation // Climate Dynamics. 2015. Vol. 44. № 11-12. P. 3211–3222. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2381-4
  3. Polonsky A.B., Basharin D.V., Voskresenskaya E.N. et al. Relationship between North Atlantic Oscillation, Euro-Asian climate anomalies and Pacific variability // Pacific Oceanography. 2004. Vol. 2. № 1-2. P. 52–66.
  4. Nesterov E.S. “Severoatlanticheskoe kolebanie: atmosfera i okean (The North Atlantic Oscillation: Atmosphere and Ocean), Moscow: Triada, 2013. 144 p.
  5. Bueh C., Nakamura H. Scandinavian pattern and its climatic impact // Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 2007. Vol. 133. № 629. P. 2117–2131. DOI: 10.1002/qj.173
  6. Polonskii A.B., Kibal’chich I.A. Circulation indices and thermal regime of Eastern Europe in winter // Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2015. Vol. 40. P. 1–9. DOI: 10.3103/S106837391501001X
  7. Kutiel H., Benaroch Y. North Sea Caspian Pattern (NCP) – an upper level at-mospheric teleconnection affecting the eastern Mediterranean: Identification and definition // Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2002. Vol. 71. P. 17–28. DOI: 10.1007/s704-002-8205-x
  8. Brunetti M., Kutiel H. The relevance of the North-Sea Caspian Pattern (NCP) in explaining temperature variability in Europe and the Mediterranean // Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 2011. Vol. 11. P. 2881–2888. DOI: 10.5194/nhess-11-2881-2011
  9. Polonsky A.B., Kibalchich I.A. Influence of the North Sea-Caspian oscillation on surface temperature anomalies over the territory Ukraine and the Black Sea in the cold period // Scientific Bulletin of the Belgorod state University. Series “Natural Sciences”. 2013. Issue 25, № 24 (167), P. 150–156.
  10. Rybak Е.А., Yaitskaya N.A., Rybak O.О. Impact of the North Sea – Caspian Pattern on the formation of regimes of air temperature and precipitation in the Caucasus region // Monitoring systems of environment. 2018. № 3(33). P. 57–64. DOI:10.33075/2220-5861-2018-3-57-64
  11. Thorne P.W., Vose R.S. Reanalyses suitable for characterizing long-term trends: Are they really achievable? // Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2010. Vol. 91. № 3. P. 353–361. DOI: 10.1175/2009BAMS2858.1
  12. Compo G.P., Whitaker J.S., Sardeshmukh P.D. et al. The twentieth century reanalysis project // Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 2011. Vol. 137. № 654. P. 1–28. DOI: 10.1002/qj.776
  13. (date of the application: 28.10.2020).
  14. (date of the application: 28.10.2020).
  15. North G.R., Bell T.L., Calahan R.F. et al. Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions // Monthly Weather Review. 1982. V. 110. № 7 P. 699–706. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110<0699:SEITEO>2.0.CO;2
  16. von Storch H., Navarra A. Analysis of Climate Variability. Springer-Verlag, New-York. 1995. 334 p.
  17. Evstigneev V.P., Naumova V.A., Evstigneev M.P. et al. Physiographic factors of seasonal distribution of linear trends in air temperature on the Azov-Black sea coast // Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2016. Vol. 41. P. 19–27. DOI: 10.3103/S1068373916010039