E.V. Vyshkvarkova1,2, O.Yu. Sukhonos1,2, E.N. Voskresenskaya1,2
1Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, RF, Sevastopol, Lenin St., 28
2Sevastopol State University, RF, Sevastopol, Universitetskaya St., 33
In the present work, an assessment of possible future changes in the compound extremes of air temperature and precipitation by the middle and end of the 21st century in the Sevastopol region was carried out. The simultaneous or sequential occurrence of extreme events related to air temperature and precipitation can lead to adverse consequences in various areas of the economy and have a detrimental effect on humans. To assess future changes in the compound extremes, an ensemble of modeling results from ten regional climate models of the CORDEX research project was used. The paper uses the calculated data of average monthly air temperatures and precipitation under the scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations RCP4.5 (moderately optimistic) and RCP8.5 (pessimistic) for a point in the Sevastopol region. The 25th and 75th percentiles of the indicated characteristics were taken as threshold values for determining the compound extremes. Four combinations were used to identify compound extremes: CD (cold/dry), CW (cold/wet), WD (warm/dry), and WW (warm/wet). It shows a decrease in the frequency of “cold” indices (CD and CW) in both future periods, and an increase in the number of months with compound extremes in future periods relative to the base period for “warm” indices, with temperatures above the 75th percentile – WD and WW for all seasons. The increase in the WD and WW indices seems to be related to an increase in the average values and temperature variability. The results can be useful in developing options for adaptation and mitigation of climate change in the region.
Keywords: compound extremes, air temperature, precipitation, projections, Sevastopol region, CORDEX.
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