Analysis and forecast of man-made emergencies situations in the Sevastopol region

by

G.A. Sigora, L.A. Nichkova, T.Yu. Khomenko

 Sevastopol State University, RF, Sevastopol, Universitetskaya St., 33

E-mail: sigora1@yandex.ru; tamara_homenko93@mail.ru

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2022-3-51-61

UDC 349.6                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Abstract:

   This paper provides an analysis of man-made emergencies in the Sevastopol region in order to predict man-made emergencies for 2022-2023. Comprehensive analysis and forecasting were carried out on the basis of information analysis, using statistical data published on the official websites of public authorities in the public domain.

    The following potential hazards are known to be constant sources of risks for the life of the population and territories of the city of Sevastopol: fires; accident; technogenic, natural and biological and social emergencies; water incidents.

   Potential dangers of the Sevastopol region are considered in the field of industry and energy. The radiation hazard and transport hazards are considered separately. The assessment of the state of protection of the population from emergencies is carried out by comparing the magnitude of the individual risk of emergencies with the acceptable individual risk of emergencies for the constituent entity of the Russian Federation.

   The paper provides a list of areas, the implementation of which can help reduce the risks of potential hazards to the life of the population and territories of all types and scales.

  Based on the results of this work, on the basis of average statistical observations on the territory of the city of Sevastopol, a forecast of man-made emergencies for 2022-2023 was compiled.

Keywords: technogenic emergencies, statistics, forecast, Sevastopol region, risk, population protection.

To quote: 

Full text in PDF(RUS)

REFERENCES

  1. Akimov V.A., Bykov A.A., and Shhetinin E.Ju. Vvedenie v statistiku jekstremal’nyh znachenij i ee prilozhenija (Introduction to the statistics of extreme values ​​and its applications). MChS Rossii. Moscow: FGU VNII GOChS (FC), 2009, 524 p.
  2. Akimov V.A., Vladimirov V.A., and Izmalkov V.I. Katastrofy i bezopasnost (Disasters and safety). Moscow: Delovoj jekspress, 2006, 392 p.
  3. Bykov A.A. Prognozirovanie riska chrezvychajnyh situacij na osnove klassicheskih rezul’tatov asimptoticheskoj teorii verojatnostej jekstremal’nyh sobytij (Forecasting the risk of emergency situations based on the classical results of the asymptotic theory of probability of extreme events), Tezisy dokladov II Vserossijskoj nauchno-tehnicheskoj konferencii i XII Shkoly molodyh uchenyh (Safety of critical infrastructures and territories: abstracts of the II All-Russian Conference. sci.-tech. conf. and XII School of Young Scientists), Ekaterinburg, 22 October 2008, Ekaterinburg: UrO RAN, 2008, рр.10-11.
  4. Fedosov A.V., Mannanova G.R., and Shipilova Ju.A. Analiz opasnostej, ocenka riska avarij na opasnyh proizvodstvennyh obektah i rekomendacii po vyboru metodov analiza riska (Risk Assessment of Accidents at Hazardous Industrial Facilities and Recommendations on the Choice of Risk Analysis Methods). Neftegazovoe delo, 2016, No. 3, pp. 322–336.
  5. Grabel’nikov A.S. Sravnitel’nyj analiz sushhestvujushhih metodik prognozirovanija chrezvychajnyh situacij tehnogennogo haraktera (Comparative analysis of existing methods for forecasting emergency situations of a technogenic nature). Sovremennye problemy grazhdanskoj zashhity, 2022, Vol. 1 (42), pp. 10–13.
  6. Melikova M.T. Metody prognozirovanija riskov tehnogennyh chrezvychajnyh situacij (Methods for predicting the risks of technogenic emergencies). Dostizhenija nauki i obrazovanija, 2018, Vol. 8(30), pp. 21–23.
  7. Vereskun A.V., Fajzulin T.Sh., Oltjan I.Ju., Bajda S.E., Zinov’ev S.V., Baryshev E.M., Baler M.A., and Bulgakova E.Ju. Kompleksnoe issledovanie vlijanija riskov prirodnyh i tehnogennyh chrezvychajnyh situacij na bezopasnost’ zhiznedejatel’nosti naselenija Respubliki Krym i g. Sevastopolja (A comprehensive study of the impact of the risks of natural and man-made emergencies on the life safety of the population of the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol). Moscow: VNII GOChS (FC), 2015, 208 p.
  8. https://sev.gov.ru/docs/250/126590 (July 11, 2022).
  9. http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_173907 (July 11, 2022).
  10. https://sev.gov.ru/docs/253/29190 (July 11, 2022).
  11. http://stat.gibdd.ru (July 11, 2022).
  12. Gorod Sevastopol’ v cifrah 2021 g., 2022, 199 р.
  13. https://internet-law.ru/gosts/gost/62126 (July 11, 2022).

Loading