Scientific forecast: Will El Niño start in 2023?

A.S. Lubkov

 Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, RF, Sevastopol, Lenin St., 28



   The Institute of Natural and Technical Systems (INTS) has developed a model based on artificial neural networks that can forecast the state of the ENSO and determine the approach of El Nino and La Nina events at lead time of one year. The forecast skill of the ENSO events in the INTS model is superior to all state-of-the-art dynamical forecast systems at lead times longer than six months. The INTS model shows the completion of La Nina in February 2023, the neutral phase of the ENSO in March and April, and from May 2023 with a probability of 83%, the start of the El Nino event. At the same time, at the time of writing this report, only 7 out of 25 dynamic and statistical models show the start of the El Nino event in 2023.

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