Parameterization of precipitation on Elbrus for application in the mass-balance calculations

by

О.О. Rybak1, 2, 3, I.А. Коrneva2, 4, Е.А. Rybak2, T.N. Postnikova1, 5

1Institute of Water Problems or RAS, Moscow, Gubkin St., 3

2Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, Sevastopol, Lenin St., 28.

3Кabardino-Balkarian State University, Nalchik, Chernyshevsky St., 173

4Institute of Geography of RAS, Moscow, Staromonetny per., 29, bld. 4

5Lomonosov Moscow state University, Leninsky Gory, 1

E-mail: o.o.rybak@gmail.com

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2024-3-47-57

UDC 551.89 551.583.7                                           

EDN: https://elibrary.ru/ggrnyt

Abstract:

The Elbrus glacier complex consisting of more than twenty glaciers is the largest glaciated area in the Caucasus. It has a significant impact on the formation of the river runoff regime in the upper reaches of the Terek and Kuban rivers and indirectly affects economic activities in the piedmont territories of the North Caucasus. Forecast calculations require an accurate description of the heterogeneous precipitation field on Elbrus, the formation of which is critically influenced by the orientation of the slopes and absolute height. The lack of instrumental observations and indirect estimates makes it difficult to correctly apply any calculation methods. Practical needs for predictions require the development of objective algorithms for estimating precipitation in areas not covered by regular weather observations. In this work we have considered an algorithm for calculating the precipitation field on Elbrus. It consists of interpolating the original model estimates into one-degree sectors of a cone centered on the Western Summit. The algorithm allows extrapolation and redistribution in space of the measured precipitation at the Terskol weather station and calculation of the corresponding conversion factors. The constructed connections make it possible to calculate precipitation obtained during downscaling of model climate projections.

Keywords: Elbrus, Caucasus, precipitation, orographic effects, mathematical modeling, mass-balance models, climatic projections.

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