On the representation of precipitation trends over the Black Sea by CMIP6 models

by

A.B. Polonsky, P.A. Sukhonos

Institute of Natural and Technical Systems,

RF, Sevastopol, Lenin St., 28

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2024-4-16-27

UDC 551.583                                     

EDN: https://elibrary.ru/cepyno

Abstract:     

The ability of 36 models (173 realizations) from the international project Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to adequately represent long–term trends in precipitation over the Black Sea is assessed. The results of calculations performed using numerical models are compared with ERA5 reanalysis data for the historical period (1959–2022). Long-term trends in the median precipitation change, based on the quantile regression method, are analyzed for all months and for annual mean values of monthly precipitation. It is found that the overwhelming majority of model estimates of regional precipitation trends fundamentally do not correspond to the trends identified from the reanalysis data. In particular, only 17 realizations of December precipitation and 9 realizations of annual mean values of monthly precipitation indicate the presence of significant trends that are detected from the reanalysis data. It is concluded that the use of multi–model averaging over the entire CMIP6 dataset when conducting scenario assessments of precipitation over the Black Sea is impractical. For a more accurate calculation of the probable amount of atmospheric precipitation in the future, it is necessary to use only those model realizations that for the control period give results that correspond to the estimates obtained from the reanalysis data.

Keywords: precipitation, trends, CMIP6 models, Black Sea.

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