How weather noise affects the model estimates of the surface mass balance of a mountain glacier

by

О.О. Rybak 1, 2, 3, Е.А. Rybak2, I.А. Коrneva2, 4, T.N. Postnikova1, 5, А.V. Shevchenko3, S.I. Shagin3

1Institute of Water Problems or RAS, Moscow, Gubkin St., 3

2Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, Sevastopol, Lenin St., 28.

3Кh.M. Berbekov Kabardino-Balkarian State University, Nalchik, Chernyshevsky St., 173

4Institute of Geography of RAS, Moscow, Staromonetny per., 29, bld. 4

5Lomonosov Moscow state University, Leninskye Gory, 1

E-mail: o.o.rybak@gmail.com

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2025-1-07-20

UDC 551.324.63 551.583                                       

EDN: https://elibrary.ru/afiyhq

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to assess the impact of random weather fluctuations (weather noise) on the results of model calculations of the surface mass balance of a mountain glacier. The Elbrus glacier complex was chosen as the object of study. The traditional approach to mass balance modeling is to use meteorological series as external forcing. It is known that the calculation results are sensitive to the choice of model parameters, and to obtain correct results, the mass balance model should be calibrated using data of observations. This approach usually ignores the fact that forcing series contain internal weather variability, which after integration by the model can cause scatter in the calculation results unrelated to the features of the model itself. To evaluate the impact of weather noise in forcing series on the calculated mass balance, artificially generated series of surface air temperature and precipitation were used. An ensemble of 50 series with a duration of 20 model years with a daily time resolution was obtained using the stochastic weather generator WGEN based on the observed series at the Terskol weather station. In the stochastic generator, precipitation events are modeled by a first-order Markov chain, and their intensity by a gamma distribution. Air temperature is calculated by fitting the corresponding distributions and harmonic functions separately for model days with and without precipitation.

Statistical analysis of the model ensemble of cumulative values ​​of the surface mass balance and its components – accumulation, melting, glacier runoff – allowed to assess the influence of weather noise on the modeling results.

Keywords: Elbrus, mountain glacier, surface mass balance, climate, mathematical model, energy balance model, stochastic weather generator

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