El-Nino – Southern Oscillation in winter 2024–2025 and the La Nina 2025–2026 forecast

by

A.S. Lubkov, E.N. Voskresenskaya

Institute of Natural and Technical Systems (INTS), RF, Sevastopol, Lenin St., 28

E-mail: andrey-ls2015@yandex.ru

DOI: 10. 33075/2220-5861-2025-1-21-30

UDC 551.583                                                                 

EDN: https://elibrary.ru/bjfsuz

Abstract:

The current state of El Nino – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the autumn and winter of 2024–2025 is considered in the paper. A forecast obtained using the neural network model developed in INTS is provided. According to the results of a comprehensive analysis of the ENSO characteristics, the 2024–2025 La Niña forecast did not take place. In fact, the complex of current winter anomalies resembles the conditions that may characterize the beginning of La Niña event. However, the duration of the anomaly existence does not correspond to the minimum typical duration of the events of the ENSO. The calculations based on the author’s model predict the upcoming La Niña event in 2025–2026. The obtained results specify that neutral ENSO conditions will exist from March to July. Then, the La Niña event will begin in August. Its mature phase will correspond to the Central Pacific type. The model ensemble estimates of the world climate centers indicate the possible onset of La Niña in the second half of 2025 with the probability of 32–55% but without determining its type.

Keywords: ENSO, La Nina, sea surface temperature, subsurface layer, long-term forecast, neural networks, modeling

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