Trends in winter precipitation over the Black Sea in the 21st century based on CMIP6 models for the SSP2-4.5 scenario

by

A.B. Polonsky, P.A. Sukhonos

Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, RF, Sevastopol, Lenin St., 28

E-mail: apolonsky5@mail.ru

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2025-4-07-17

UDC 551.583                  

EDN: https://elibrary.ru/acfhvs

Abstract:

Using 17 realizations of the CMIP6 climate models, the projections of changes in December precipitation over the Black Sea in the 21st century are analyzed for the most probable climate scenario SSP2-4.5. These realizations adequately represent the long-term trends in December precipitation over the Black Sea and their median in the historical period (1959–2022), obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis data, with the exception of one realization of the MIROC-ES2L-f2 numerical model. It is found that in the period 2030–2099, the change in precipitation over the Black Sea is characterized by a significant positive trend in 4 realizations (CanESM5 p1 (ens0, ens4, ens24) and CanESM5 p2 (ens8)) and a significant negative trend in 4 realizations (CanESM5 p1 (ens3, ens20), MPI-ESM1-2-LR (ens7) and UKESM1-0-LL f2 (ens1)). In the remaining realizations, there is no significant trend. The change in December precipitation over the Black Sea, estimated at a confidence level of 90% for the ensemble of selected model realizations in future periods relative to the baseline (1995–2014), in the short term (2030–2049) will be 6.67 ± 5.97 mm, in the medium term (2060–2079) – 7.26 ± 5.88 mm, and in the long term (2080–2099) – 7.51 ± 6.05 mm. Thus, it can be stated that regional trends in December precipitation change in the 21st century, estimated using calculation data based onCMIP6 models for the SSP2-4.5 scenario, are characterized by a high level of uncertainty.

Keywords: December precipitation, climate projections, Black Sea, CMIP6

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