Impact of heatwaves on thermal comfort and mortality in the city of Sevastopol

by

A.A. Stefanovich, E.N. Voskresenskaya

Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, RF, Sevastopol, Lenin St., 28

E-mail: amazurenko@mail.ru

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2025-4-28-36

UDC 913 (4):551.586               

EDN: https://elibrary.ru/icnovy

Abstract:

This study aims to assess the impact of extreme heat on thermal comfort and mortality from diseases of the circulatory system in the city of Sevastopol. The research is based on the analysis of ERA5 reanalysis meteorological data from 1950 to 2024, adjusted using station observation data, and monthly mortality data for 2016–2023. Heat waves are identified using the 97th percentile thresholds of mean and maximum daily temperature, while the bioclimate index Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) is used to assess heat stress. The results revealed a significant positive trend towards an increase in the frequency and duration of heat waves in the region. It is found that during periods of extreme heat, the population experiences significant heat stress, with maximum PET index values reaching levels hazardous to health. Statistical analysis shows a positive correlation between heat waves and mortality levels: during months with extreme heat, mortality increased by an average of 2–5%, and with a delayed effect being also revealed. The obtained results emphasize the need for developing targeted adaptation strategies and early warning systems to minimize health risks for the population in the context of climate change.

Keywords: bioclimate index, heat waves, diseases of the circulatory system, physiologically equivalent temperature, heat stress, mortality, Sevastopol

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