Changes in the parameters of trade winds in the equatorial Pacific Ocean in a changing climate

by

V.V. Afanaseva, E.N. Voskresenskaya, A.S. Lubkov

Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, RF, Sevastopol, Lenin St., 28

E-mail: afanasyeva.vladlena@mail.ru

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2025-4-37-46

UDC 551.583                                                            

EDN: https://elibrary.ru/lseqez

Abstract:

The paper analyzes the quality of zonal wind data in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, obtained from calculations of global climate models from the CMIP6 project, with a view to their subsequent use to study the characteristics of the El Niño and La Niña events. For this purpose, data on the zonal component of wind in three characteristic regions of the equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean were compared: western, central and eastern (WP, EP and CP), calculated using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the historical period from 1987 to 2014, with the corresponding series of model data from 47 climate models of the CMIP6 project. Four models have been selected that correctly reproduce the interannual variability corresponding to the scale of the quasi-cyclical El Nino – Southern Oscillation process and the global trend. Using the selected CMIP6 models, statistically significant estimates of trends in future changes in trade wind indices until the end of the 21st century were given in the regions of WP, CP and EP according to two scenarios of anthropogenic emissions into the atmosphere: SSP 2–4.5 and SSP 5–8.5. As a result, it was noted that in the 21st century, the speed of trade winds in the Pacific Ocean decreases, and the frequency of El Niño events of the Central-Pacific type of La Niña and the Eastern-Pacific type will increase.

Keywords: El Nino – Southern Oscillation, Equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean, trade wind index, climate models, CMIP6

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