Mathematical modeling of the surface ice flow on Elbrus

by

О.О. Rybak1,2,3, Е.А. Rybak2, T.N. Postnikova1

1Institute of Water Problems or RAS, RF, Moscow, Gubkin St., 3

2Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, RF, Sevastopol, Lenin St., 28.

3Кh.M. Berbekov Kabardino-Balkarian State University, RF, Nalchik, Chernyshevsky St., 173

4M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, RF, Moscow, Leninskiye Gory, 1

E-mail: o.o.rybak@gmail.com

 

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2025-4-116-127

UDC 551.89 551.583.7

EDN https://elibrary.ru/vqwmnt

Abstract:

The Elbrus Glacier Complex, consisting of more than two dozen glaciers, is the largest center of mountain glaciation in the Caucasus. The glaciers that comprise the complex significantly influence the formation of river runoff regime in the upper reaches of the Terek and Kuban rivers and, thus, indirectly affect water consumption and, more generally, economic activities in Northern Caucasus. Although numerous studies on various aspects of the dynamics of the Elbrus Glacier Complex have been published over the past half-century, until recently, the main approaches to glacier modeling were primarily focused on its recent past and present. Scarce predictive calculations indicate that, under moderate and extreme climate scenarios, the Elbrus glaciers will remain the only significant glaciation center in the Caucasus by the end of this century. Implementation of complex 3-D models will allow us to reveal the future configuration of the glaciers, the expected dynamics of their front retreat, and the timing and location of the formation of proglacial lakes in relief depressions. This study presents the results of the first stage of modeling the evolution of Elbrus glaciers using a complex 3-D thermomechanical model. Numerical experiments are aimed at calculating variants of surface flow velocity fields and the values ​​of key parameters in the glacier dynamics equations.

Keywords: Elbrus, mountain glacier, mathematical model, numerical experiments, ice flow

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