Model for integrated water resource management based on digital technologies in climate instability conditions

by

N.A. Zhilnikova

Saint Petersburg State University of Aerospace Instrumentation,

RF, Saint-Petersburg, Bolshaya Morskaia, 67, lit. A

E-mail: n.zhilnikova@guap.ru

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2025-4-136-146

UDC 551.583022                                                    

EDN: https://elibrary.ru/xfgrmk

Abstract:

In the face of growing climate uncertainty and increasing anthropogenic pressure on the environment, the issue of ensuring sustainable water use is particularly pressing, requiring the development of innovative tools for effective planning. This article focuses on the development of an integrated water resources management system aimed at minimizing climate risks for all water users within territorial natural and production complexes. A digital platform architecture for monitoring water use efficiency is developed. It enables the collection, integration, and analysis of diverse data (hydrological, meteorological, and production) in near real time. A water consumption forecasting methodology is proposed, based on a multifactor model that takes into account both deterministic (seasonality, production cycles) and stochastic (extreme weather events) components. This approach enables an accurate quantitative assessment of climate risks using a ranking matrix, which forms the basis for informed management decisions and the development of preventive measures. The model, implemented using machine learning algorithms and predictive analytics, provides adaptive management of water resource systems, enabling a strategic transition from reactive to proactive management in conditions of highly volatile climate parameters and increasing the sustainability of water management activities.

Keywords: climate risks, predictive analytics, adaptive management, water resource system, territorial natural-production complex, water use, forecasting

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