The diagnosis and forecast of ENSO 2025–2027

by

A.S. Lubkov, E.N. Voskresenskaya

Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, RF, Sevastopol, Lenin St., 28

E-mail: andrey-ls2015@yandex.ru

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2026-1-23-29

UDC 551.583                     

EDN: https://elibrary.ru/dudfka

Abstract:     

The paper is concerned with the current state of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the autumn and winter of 2025–2026. It is shown that the weak La Nina 2025 event, previously forecasted by the model of the Institute of Natural and Technical Systems (INTS), took place. This is evidenced by a complex of developed anomalies observed in the ocean-atmosphere system in the equatorial Pacific in the autumn and winter. The type of this event is defined as the Eastern Pacific one. The duration of the event was 4 months. Its SST anomalies during the mutual phase of development were up to -0.7 – -0.83 °C. Using the INTS model, a forecast for the upcoming El Nino 2026–2027 is obtained. This event is expected to be similar to the central Pacific type. Intensification of the SST anomaly will be observed in the Nino 3 region in summer. By late autumn, the SST anomaly will intensify to more than 1°, with its localization observed in the Nino 4 region. Ensemble estimates using the global climate center models also indicate a possible El Nino event in the summer of 2026 on the level probability of approximately 60%.

Keywords: ENSO, La Nina, El Nino, sea surface temperature, long-term forecast, neural networks, modeling

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