Long-term bioclimatic index changes in the Tyumen Region

by

O.V. Marchukova1,2, A.K. Yugatov1

1Tyumen State University, RF, Tyumen, Volodarsky St., 6

2Institute of Natural and Technical Systems (INTS), RF, Sevastopol, Lenin St., 28

 E-mail: olesjath@mail.ru

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2026-1-30-38

UDC 551.586                                                   

EDN: https://elibrary.ru/zyhwuy

Abstract:   

With the development of various service sectors, ranging from tourism to medicine, interest in studying bioclimatic indicators has increased significantly. Biometeorological index such as effective temperature (ET) and equivalent-effective temperature (EET) enable assessment of human thermal comfort in the environment of any locality. Global warming and atmospheric pollution create new prerequisites for investigating the dynamics of climate comfort changes. This article examines two key bioclimatic index calculated from monthly mean data of four meteorological stations in the Tyumen Region (Tyumen, Ishim, Tobolsk, and Vikulovo) for the period 1971–2023. Comfortable climatic conditions according to the effective temperature index in the studied Western Siberian region are characteristic only of summer months. Over the past 50 years, a positive trend in the increase of bioclimatic indicators has been observed across the Tyumen Region. However, this trend does not indicate an “improvement in comfort” but rather an intensification of thermal load on humans, as rising ET and EET values reflect increased thermal stress under global warming conditions. Nevertheless, compared to effective temperatures, the rate of increase in equivalent-effective temperatures shows spatially uneven patterns across the Tyumen Region. In the northern and southern parts, EET trends average 0,9 °C per decade, whereas in the western and eastern parts they amount to 0,4 °C per decade. This spatial heterogeneity is associated with a sharp decline in monthly mean wind speed observed over the past 30 years at the Tobolsk and Ishim meteorological stations.

Keywords: bioclimate, equivalent effective temperature, effective temperature, thermal stress, Tyumen Region, Western Siberia, global warming

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