Forecasting chemical oxygen demands of pulp and paper mill wastewater using dynamic models

by

A.A. Berezina

Saint Petersburg State University of Aerospace Instrumentation,

RF, Saint-Petersburg, Bolshaya Morskaia, 67, lit. A,

E-mail: anybaranova299751@yandex.ru

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2025-4-128-135

UDC 628.35:676.1.022                                               

EDN https://elibrary.ru/wkjsra

Abstract:

The volatility of pulp and paper mill wastewater composition and flow rate creates a need for effective operational control systems, particularly for monitoring chemical oxygen demand. The lack of specialized mathematical models limits the implementation of predictive control systems. This paper presents the results of a study on the development of methods for predicting chemical oxygen demand in pulp and paper mill wastewater. The study aims to comparatively analyze the effectiveness of various classes of mathematical models for constructing soft indicators of a key wastewater quality parameter. Based on an analysis of production data, a comparative analysis of dynamic and statistical models was conducted. Model validation was performed using sliding window and k-fold cross-validation methods. Dynamic models demonstrated high predictive ability, while the multiple linear regression model demonstrated lower accuracy. The advantage of dynamic models is demonstrated by their ability to account for time dependencies and process delays typical of biological treatment processes. The obtained results provide a basis for developing predictive control systems for wastewater treatment plant process parameters, which will minimize environmental risks and improve operational efficiency. The practical significance of the work is confirmed by the feasibility of integrating the developed models into automated control systems for real-world pulp and paper production facilities.

Keywords: treatment plants, wastewater, modeling, chemical oxygen demand, dynamic models, quality indicators, forecasting

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