Correction of the model climatic data for simualtion of the central caucasus mountain glaciers

by

I.А. Korneva1,2, О.О. Rybak1,3,4, Е.А. Rybak1

1Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, Sevastopol, Lenina St., 28.

2Institute of Geography of RAS, Moscow, Staromonetny per., 29, bld. 4

3Institute of Water Problems or RAS, Moscow, Gubkina St., 3

4Кabardino-Balkarian State University, Nalchik, Chernyshevskogo St., 173

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2024-1-09-22

UDC 551.324.63                                                  

EDN: https://elibrary.ru/bmxnks

Abstract:

Modeling the dynamics of mountain glaciers requires climatic data with high spatial and temporal resolution. Therefore, data from mesoscale climate models are optimal for prediction purposes. Generated fields contain systematic errors, so they must be corrected before practical use. Corrected and rescaled results of the CORDEX project were used to obtain estimates of future surface air temperature and precipitation for 2091-2100 in accordance with climate scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. We found that the maximum increase in air temperature is expected in the RCP8.5 scenario, and on average reaches 7.5°C with respect to the historical period 1977–2005. In the Elbrus area, the maximum increase in the RCP8.5 scenario is 4°C during June-September. In the RCP2.6 scenario, temperature will apparently not change. Averaged over the region, precipitation will increase by approximately 17% by the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario, with the largest growth in October-March. In the glaciated zone, the increase in annual precipitation will not exceed 7% in the RCP8.5 scenario, and even less in the RCP2.6 scenario. Therefore, it is very likely that growth in air temperature will not be compensated by increase in winter precipitation, which will result in further degradation of glaciation

Кeywords: regional climate model, global climate model, regionalization, correction of the model data, climate prediction, climatic scenarios, Caucasus, mountain glacieк.

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