Non-stationary statistical estimation of wind speeds of rare recurrence in the Azov and Black Sea region

V.P. Evstigneev 1, 2, V.A. Naumova1, 2, N.A. Lemeshko3

 1Sevastopol State University, RF, Sevastopol, Universitetskaya St., 33

2Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, RF, Sevastopol, Lenin St., 28

3Saint-Petersburg State University, RF, Saint-Petersburg, Universitetskaya Emb., 7


DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2021-3-15-22

UDC 551.582.2+551.55


   In the paper statistical distribution of the highest wind speed per year in the Azov and Black Sea region was analyzed using data of 33 meteorological stations for 1958-2013. A statistical estimation of the wind speed extremes was carried out by approximation of the empirical sample with a function of Generalized distribution of Extreme Values (GEV) and by extrapolating it to the low probabilities’ region. We used two methodologies and applied statistical distribution functions corresponding to them. The first method is based on the assumption of stationarity of GEV function parameters. The second one is based on the non-stationary assumption of time dependence of extremum localization parameter μ.

   The results of this work indicate that, for at least 13 out of 33 stations in the Azov-Black Sea region the distribution of the highest wind speeds is significantly affected by climatic non-stationarity of wind data series. The use of stationary estimates of wind speeds will create difficulties in engineering design of construction objects in the vicinity of these stations. For example, according to the current building standards, when calculating normative wind load on buildings, it is required to calculate mean velocity value corresponded to 50-year recurrence rate. The reliability of the calculation depends on the presence of non-stationarity in the time series. Thus, a pronounced trend and climate-driven long-period variations in climatic series create an urgent need to take them into account in climatic support of construction on land and offshore operations in the coastal zone as well as in the analysis of risks and probable damage from dangerous hydrometeorological events.

Keywords: wind speed, extreme values distribution function, extremum, non-stationarity of time series, climate change.

To quote:

Full text in PDF(RUS)


  1. Il’in Yu.P., Repetin L.N., Belokopytov V.N., et al. Hydrometeorological conditions of the seas of Ukraine (Gidrometeorologicheskie uslovija morej Ukrainy), Vol. 2 Black Sea, Sevastopol: MChS i NAN Ukrainy, MO UkrNIGMI, 2012, 420 p.
  2. Evstigneev V.P., Naumova V.A., Voskresenskaja E.N., et al. Wind-wave conditions of the coastal zone of the Azov-Black Sea region (Vetro-volnovye uslovija pribrezhnoj zony Azovo-Chernomorskogo regiona), Sevastopol’: IPTS, 2017, 320 p.
  3. van Vledder G. Ph., and Akpınar A. Wave model predictions in the Black Sea: Sensitivity to wind fields. Appl. Ocean Res., 2015, Vol. 53, pp. 161–178.
  4. Onea F., Raileanu A., and Rusu E. Evaluation of the Wind Energy Potential in the Coastal Environment of Two Enclosed Seas. Adv. Meteorol., 2015, Vol. 2015, pp. 808617.
  5. Davidan I.N., Lopatuhin L.I., and Rozhkov V.A. Wind and waves in the oceans and seas. Reference data. Register of the USSR (Veter i volny v okeanah i morjah. Spravochnye dannye. Registr SSSR), Leningrad: Transport, 1974, 359 p.
  6. Efimov V.V., and Komarovskaja O.I. Atlas of extreme wind waves in the Black Sea (Atlas jekstremal’nogo vetrovogo volnenija Chernogo morja), Sevastopol: NPC «JeKOSI – Gidrofizika», 2009, 60 p.
  7. Gorjachkin Yu.N., and Repetin L.N. Storm wind-wave conditions off the Black Sea coast of Crimea (Shtormovoj vetro-volnovoj rezhim u Chernomorskogo poberezh’ja Kryma). Jekologicheskaja bezopasnost’ pribrezhnoj i shel’fovoj zon i kompleksnoe ispol’zovanie resursov shel’fa, 2009, Iss.19, pp. 56–69.
  8. Wang X.L. Penalized maximal F-test for detecting undocumented mean-shifts without trend-change. J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech., 2008, Vol. 25, Iss. 3, pp. 368–384.
  9. Coles S. An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer-Verlag, 2001, 211 p.
  10. El Adlouni S., et al. Generalized maximum likelihood estimators for the nonstationary generalized extreme value model. Water Resour. Res., 2007, Vol. 43, pp. W03410.
  11. Logvinov K.T., and Barabash M.B. Climate and dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena in the Crimea (Klimat i opasnye gidrometeorologicheskie javlenija Kryma), Leningrad: Gidrometizdat, 1982, 318 p.
  12. Evstigneev V.P., Naumova V.A., Evstigneev M.P., and Ljubeckaja E.P. Dangerous meteorological phenomena on the territory of the Crimean peninsula in current climatic conditions (Opasnye meteorologicheskie javlenija na territorii Krymskogo poluostrova v sovremennyh klimaticheskih uslovijah). Meteorologija i gidrologija, 2021, No. 7, pp. 107–122.