Trends in changes in winter precipitation in the black sea region in the xxi century under different climate scenarios

by

A.B. Polonsky, P.A. Sukhonos

Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, RF, Sevastopol, Lenin St., 28

E-mail: pasukhonis@mail.ru

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2023-4-08-18

UDC 551.583

EDN: https://elibrary.ru/speyxa

Abstract:

Projections of changes in the winter precipitation in the Black Sea region in the short-term (2021–2050) and medium-term (2051–2080) perspective in relation to the historical period (1976–2005) were constructed for three scenarios of changes of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. We used values of the amount of precipitation in December from the regional climate model SMHI-RCA4 with input data from the global climate model ICHEC-EC-EARTH for the period 1951–2099, part of the CORDEX project.

It was found that for the RCP2.6 scenario, in the short-term perspective, the median of precipitation increases by 25–50% along the Anatolian coast. In the medium-term perspective, a significant decrease of the median of precipitation in the northeast and a significant increase of the studied parameter in small areas in the south, southwest and northwest of the Black Sea region are expected. For the more likely, moderately optimistic RCP4.5 scenario in the short-term perspective, the areas of significant increase (more than 25%) of the median of precipitation are small in area. In the medium-term perspective, a significant increase of the median of precipitation in the central and southern parts of the Black Sea region is expected. For the pessimistic scenario RCP8.5, in the short-term perspective, the median of precipitation increases in almost the entire Black Sea region, with the exception of small areas in the northwestern and southwestern parts of the Black Sea. In the medium-term perspective, almost the entire territory of the Black Sea region is characterized by a significant increase of the median of precipitation.

Keywords: precipitation, projections, regional climate model SMHI-RCA4, climate scenarios, Black Sea.

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