**Yu.V. Doronina, A.M. Skatkov**

Sevastopol State University, RF, Sevastopol, Universitetskaya St., 33

*E-mail: **YVDoronina@sevsu.ru*

**DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2023-4-103-111 **

**UDC 519.8 **

**EDN: ****https://elibrary.ru/speyxa**

**Abstract:**

The article focuses on solving the problem of approximate estimation of probabilistic characteristics of object detection results during remote sensing of the Earth. In practice, it is often necessary to know about the sufficiency of statistical data that will allow you to control the equipment of the spacecraft, launch strategies with specified confidence probabilities. It is assumed that the search object is located on a plane bounded by a circle with some radius r. Based on the Monte Carlo method, a random point simulating the beam of the spacecraft was chosen. The random number of ray hits in the circle relative to the number of all tests is an approximate estimate of the probability of hitting the intended search area. The coordinates of the point are random, distributed according to a normal law with mathematical expectation M = 0. It is shown that the fastest decrease in probability occurs at the maximum angle: after the first conditional unit of time, the probability decreases approximately three times, and when the speed decreases twice, the probability of detection increases twice. The simulation of these search situations was carried out on the basis of the developed software, which, in the presence of a classification of typical cases, made it possible to obtain estimates of probability and standard deviation depending on time at different rates of dispersion growth with tilt angles. The results of the study allowed increasing the degree of validity of the decisions made to control the parameters of the spacecraft.

**Keywords:** remote sensing of the Earth, probability of detection, orbital satellite, spacecraft, dispersion.

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