On possible influence of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation on the intensity of phytomass growth in the coastal zone of Sevastopol

by

N.A. Andreeva, E.N. Voskresenskaya, O.V. Marchukova

Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, RF, Sevastopol, Lenin St., 28

E-mail: andreeva.54@list.ru

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2023-2-27-35

UDC 551+574.586:581.5                                                                                          

Abstract:

   The paper focuses on the variability of the phyto-fouling mass volume in the coastal zone of the Black Sea, near Sevastopol, under the El Nino – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence. On the basis of biomonitoring data, hydrometeorological monitoring data and the Southern Oscillation index over the 2017 – 2022 period, the analysis of the monthly fouling mass accumulation was carried out. It was found that during 6 years, taking into account seasonality, the fouling mass was in the range of (0.4–9.8) x10–3 g/cm2 of the glass surface. The study revealed a consistent change in the microalgae fouling mass volume in the bays of Sevastopol with a change in the ENSO index. At the same time, regression analysis of the average monthly microalgae fouling mass on glass in the bays of Sevastopol with hydrometeorological parameters such as water temperature, air temperature, precipitation and ENSO indices (SOI, Nino3.4) showed that the obtained linear models of sufficiently short, seven-year series can describe up to 8% of the total dispersion variability of the phyto-fouling mass. In order to obtain a complete picture of the phytomass formation in the studied water area of the Black Sea, in the subsequent study, in addition to climatic parameters, it is necessary to involve hydrochemical parameters of water in order to clarify the contribution of the anthropogenic component. Nevertheless, in the time course of changes in the microalgae fouling mass volume in the bays of Sevastopol against the background of changes in the ENSO index, all three maximum rises of phyto-fouling mass volume coincide with the maximum phases of La Niña development, and the lowest values are timed to El Niño. This is an important and promising fact that will allow us to obtain statistically significant patterns of the formation of interannual anomalies in the Black Sea ecosystem in the future.

Keywords: El Nino – Southern Oscillation, variability, microalgae, fouling mass volume, ocean-atmosphere system.

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