CMIP-6 general circulation models for diagnosing changes in climatic parameters of the global water exchange process

by

S.G. Dobrovolski1, V.P. Yushkov1, 2, I.V. Solomonova1

1FSBIS Water Problems Institute Russian Academy of Sciences (WPI RAS),

RF, Moscow, Gubkina St., 3

Е–mail: sgdo@bk.ru

2Moscow State University M.V. Lomonosov, Faculty of Physics,

RF, Moscow, Leninskiye Gory, 1 b. 2

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2023-3-16-26

UDC 504, 556                                                                                     

Abstract:

The problem of diagnosing changes in the climate system is investigated based on the theory of random functions. As a measure of changes in climate parameters, variations in mathematical expectations of the corresponding processes are taken. In turn, it is proposed to obtain estimates of average values as a result of averaging a large number of «realizations», interpreted as runs of various models of the climatic system. This approach, as an example, is used to analyze and diagnose long-term changes in one of the most important processes in the climate system – the global hydrological cycle. For this purpose, trajectories obtained as a result of runs of various (from 34 to 43) climatic models within the framework of the «historical» experiments of the CMIP-6 project covering the period 1851–2014 are used. The following variations are investigated: (1) evaporation from the ocean surface, (2) precipitation over the ocean, (3) «effective» evaporation from the ocean (precipitation minus evaporation), (4) precipitation over the land, (5) evapotranspiration from the land surface, (6) «effective» precipitation over the land (precipitation minus evaporation), (7) river runoff. It is shown that precipitation over the ocean and evaporation from land largely suppress monotonous trends in average values of evaporation from the ocean and precipitation over land on a secular time scale, respectively. At the same time, this damping does not apply to the trends of the last few decades – possibly related to a combination of a sharp increase in global temperature and explosive volcanic eruptions that preceded this period.

Keywords: climate change diagnosis, global water exchange, CMIP-6 models.

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