Assessment of climatic changes in the air temperature at the Black Sea coast of the Krasnodar region

by

Е.А. Rybak 1,2

1Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, RF, Sochi, Kurortny Av., 99/18

2FRC SSC RAS, RF, Sochi, Yana Fabritsiusa St., 2/28

 E–mail: elena.rybak@gmail.com

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2023-3-42-49 

UDC 551.5+551.3                                                                                    

Abstract:

In the XX–XXI centuries, the processes of global climate warming have different regional manifestations: the processes are ambiguous and sometimes multidirectional. Anomalies of the surface air temperature can serve as an indicator of climate change. Besides, they also can be responsible for the ongoing natural hazards. The dynamics of time series of average annual and seasonal air temperatures on the Black Sea coast of the Krasnodar Region in the time interval of 1960–2021 is studied using the WMO recommendations for the compilation of series and calculation of averages. Ten years is the minimum period for calculating the values of climate elements. The calculated decadal indices p(t) made it possible to estimate the change in air temperature with respect to the climatic norm of 1961–1990.

Studies revealed that a statistically significant increase in average annual air temperatures was observed over the period along the entire coast. On average, in 68% of cases, positive anomalies of the average annual air temperature were established. The decade 2011–2021 was found out to be the warmest and with a slight deficiency in precipitation rate.

The comparison of air temperature anomalies on the coast with similar ones in the Southern Federal District and in Russia as a whole, showed an almost synchronous increase in anomalies in all areas under consideration. The average values of the warmest decade are about the same order (1.6–1.8 °C), with the exception of Sochi (0.96°C).

The results obtained can be used to develop measures for adapting the region to climate change.

Keywords: air temperature, regional climate, climate forming factors, linear trend, Black Sea Coast of the Krasnodar Region.

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