RESEARCH OF THE DYNAMICS AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION FORECAST OF HEAT SUPPLY OF THE CRIMEAN PENINSULA

E.A. Rybalko, N.V. Baranova, V.Y. Borisova

Federal State Budget Scientific Institution «All-Russian National Research Institute of Viticulture and Winemaking «Magarach»,

Russia, 298600, Republic of the Crimea, Yalta, 31 Kirov St.

E-mail: agroeco-magarach@yandex.ru

DOI: 10.33075/2220-5861-2019-3-96-101

UDC 634.8:528.94:551.4.03:581.524.44

 Abstract:

The analysis of the spatial variation of the level of heat supply on the territory of the Crimean Peninsula is conducted and the digital large-scale cartographic model of the distribution of the sum of active air temperatures above 10 °C, adapted for the purpose of selecting the optimal sites for laying vineyards is built. The dynamics of heat supply of the Crimean Peninsula from 1985 to 2018 is analyzed and on its basis by extrapolation the forecast of change of this indicator till 2050 is made. Digital large-scale maps of the heat supply distribution forecast for the Crimean territory for 2035 and 2050 are developed.

The analysis of the time dynamics of the heat supply of Crimea revealed a trend towards rapid increase. The sum of active temperatures above 10 °C  during the analyzed period from 1985 to 2018, increased by 567 °C. Based on the results of the analysis of the thermal condition dynamics, it is concluded that in Crimea the prerequisites for the expansion of territories suitable for late and mid-late grape varieties that require high heat supply of the growing area are formed. However, it is necessary to take an even more careful approach to the selection of sites for the laying of technical grape varieties designed to produce high-quality wine products, as the identified trends in climate change may be unfavorable for the production of some types of wine products.

Keywords: agroecology, climate maps, sum of active temperatures, Crimean Peninsula, grapes, forecast.

Full text in PDF(RUS)

LIST OF REFERENCES:

  1. The influence of agro-climatic resources of the Republic of Crimea to optimise the placement of table grapes / M. N. Borisenko, V. I. Ivanchenko, N. V. Baranova, E. A. Rybalko // Viticulture and winemaking: collection of scientific works. tr. FSBIS “VNIIB” Magarach “ran”. Yalta, 2016. T. XLVI. P. 20-23.
  2. Kryza M., Szymanowski M., Błaś M., Migała K., Werner M., Sobik M. Observed changes in SAT and GDD and the climatological suitability of the Poland-Germany-Czech Republic transboundary region for wine grapes cultivation. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2015, V. 122, I. 1-2. P. 207–218.
  3. Machar I., Vlčková V., Buček A., Vrublová K., Filippovová J., Brus J. Environmental modelling of climate change impact on grapevines: Case study from the Czech Republic // Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 2017. V. 26, I. 4. P. 1927–1933.
  4. Prognostic development of viticulture in the Crimea based on the results of scientific research in VNIIVIV “Magarach” in 2018 / V. V. Likhovskaya, V. A. Volynkin, E. p. Stranishevskaya [et al.] // Scientific works of the North Caucasus Federal scientific center for horticulture, viticulture, and winemaking. 2019. Vol. 22. P. 68-78.
  5. Rybalko E. A., Baranova N. V. Investigation of trends in climate change in the Republic of Crimea for planning the placement of grape plantations // Monitoring systems of environment. 2018. No. 14 (34). P. 116-121.
  6. Agrometeorological bulletins on the territory of the Republic of Crimea // fgbu “CRIMEAN UGMS”.
  7. Recommendations 575/46. 00334830. 002-94 “Optimizing the placement of grape plantations in the Crimea “Iviv ” Magarach”. Yalta, 1993. P. 70.
  8. Rybalko E. A. Adaptation of the mathematical model of spatial distribution of heat supply of the territory for the purpose of effective placement of industrial vineyards on the territory of the Crimean Peninsula // Viticulture and winemaking, 2014. № 2. P. 10-11.
  9. Anisimov O. A., Lobanov V. A., Reneva S. A. Analysis of changes in air temperature on the territory of Russia and an empirical forecast for the first quarter of the 21st century // Meteorology and hydrology. 2007. № 10. P. 20-30.
  10. Rybalko E. A., Baranova N. V., Tvardovskaya L. B. Development of a large-scale cartographic model of the spatial distribution of heat supply on the territory of the Crimea for grape culture, taking into account the morphometric features of the terrain // Scientific works of the North Caucasus zonal research Institute of horticulture and viticulture. 2016. Vol. 11. P. 17-22.

If you have found a spelling error, please, notify us by selecting that text and pressing Ctrl+Enter.

 242 total views,  1 views today

Translate »

Spelling error report

The following text will be sent to our editors: